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Data-driven towards another rate hike?
Data-driven towards another rate hike?

The second week of April offered investors two data points, the latest US jobs report and the inflation numbers for Match, that they hoped would make the case for a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Although headline inflation in March came in at a one-year low and the number of new non-farm jobs created was the least in over two years, investors were left hoping that the Fed will focus on the trends rather than the actual, positive numbers.

Banking on the cavalry’s prompt arrival
Banking on the cavalry’s prompt arrival

The second week of March was dominated by the crumbling fortunes of large US regional banks and European major Credit Suisse. Although this certainly dented investors’ risk appetite, many saw events as an opportunity – especially if major central banks dust off their playbooks from 2008-09 and 2020, opening lines of credit and secured lending facilities and cutting interest rates.

Fed following data, investors running from it
Fed following data, investors running from it

The third month of 2023 started with investors pulling another $5 billion out of EPFR-tracked US Equity Funds, extending that group’s longest outflow streak since 2Q20, as stronger-than-expected consumer spending and a resilient labor market undermined the case for an early end to the current US rate hiking cycle.

Craving certainty, markets get uncertainty
Craving certainty, markets get uncertainty

How much longer will the war in Ukraine go on? How much further will central banks go before they deem inflation contained? How much damage will the latest US debt ceiling standoff do? How widely will the benefits of China’s anticipated economic rebound be felt? What direction will Japanese monetary policy take?

Glass remains half full in late January
Glass remains half full in late January

Actions spoke louder – to equity investors – than words coming into February, with the fact that the latest interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve was only 25 basis points, boosting flows to US Equity Funds and other groups despite the accompanying verbal warning that the battle against inflation is “not fully done.”