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Off the wires: US inflation falls to lowest level since May 2021
Off the wires: US inflation falls to lowest level since May 2021

According to CNN, annual inflation dropped in March 2023 for the ninth consecutive month, and grocery prices fell month-on-month for the first time since September 2020. While the CPI has cooled off – at least temporarily – investors are not treating the news as a green light for the road back to riskier asset classes. With fear far from banished, cash remains king.

March’s pain may be April’s gain
March’s pain may be April’s gain

Flows to and from EPFR-tracked fund groups during the final week of March continued to paint a picture of risk aversion and fear among investors. For the third week running liquidity funds recorded above average inflows while High Yield, Bank Loan, Emerging Markets Bond and Alternative Funds extended their current outflow streaks.

Banking on the cavalry’s prompt arrival
Banking on the cavalry’s prompt arrival

The second week of March was dominated by the crumbling fortunes of large US regional banks and European major Credit Suisse. Although this certainly dented investors’ risk appetite, many saw events as an opportunity – especially if major central banks dust off their playbooks from 2008-09 and 2020, opening lines of credit and secured lending facilities and cutting interest rates.

Investors respond to red shoots of recovery
Investors respond to red shoots of recovery

February was a bumpy month for investors and markets. Interest rates climbed higher in the US, Europe and Australia, the benchmark Dow Jones Industrials stock index shed over 4%, inflation numbers for January disappointed and Sino-US tensions climbed a notch. But the month did end on another positive note: Chinese factory output is growing at its fastest pace since 2012.