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Data-driven towards another rate hike?
Data-driven towards another rate hike?

The second week of April offered investors two data points, the latest US jobs report and the inflation numbers for Match, that they hoped would make the case for a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Although headline inflation in March came in at a one-year low and the number of new non-farm jobs created was the least in over two years, investors were left hoping that the Fed will focus on the trends rather than the actual, positive numbers.

Banking on the cavalry’s prompt arrival
Banking on the cavalry’s prompt arrival

The second week of March was dominated by the crumbling fortunes of large US regional banks and European major Credit Suisse. Although this certainly dented investors’ risk appetite, many saw events as an opportunity – especially if major central banks dust off their playbooks from 2008-09 and 2020, opening lines of credit and secured lending facilities and cutting interest rates.

Fed following data, investors running from it
Fed following data, investors running from it

The third month of 2023 started with investors pulling another $5 billion out of EPFR-tracked US Equity Funds, extending that group’s longest outflow streak since 2Q20, as stronger-than-expected consumer spending and a resilient labor market undermined the case for an early end to the current US rate hiking cycle.

Europe equity funds latest to catch a lift
Europe equity funds latest to catch a lift

Flows into EPFR-tracked Emerging Markets Equity Funds during the third week of January climbed to their highest level since mid-1Q21 as investors positioned themselves for China’s much anticipated economic rebound and, the anti-inflation rhetoric of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) notwithstanding, an early end to the current interest rate cycles in the US and Europe. Investors also steered $2.5 billion – a 101-week high – into Emerging Markets Bond Funds.

Oil bonds still have fuel in the tank – but how long will it last?
Oil bonds still have fuel in the tank – but how long will it last?

Fixed income markets are abuzz about the spectacular demand for new green bonds. Flows into fixed income funds with socially responsible investing (SRI) or environmental, social and governance (ESG) mandates have soared, whereas those tracked by EPFR have seen their Assets under management increase sevenfold since the beginning of 2019.

Angst over Covid-19 spreads to fixed income fund groups
Angst over Covid-19 spreads to fixed income fund groups

EPFR-tracked Bond Funds were swept up in the broad correction that hit most fund groups in late February, posting their first weekly outflow in over a year during the seven days ending March 4, as fears about the Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) continued to pummel asset classes ranging from oil to junk bonds.