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Data-driven towards another rate hike?
Data-driven towards another rate hike?

The second week of April offered investors two data points, the latest US jobs report and the inflation numbers for Match, that they hoped would make the case for a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Although headline inflation in March came in at a one-year low and the number of new non-farm jobs created was the least in over two years, investors were left hoping that the Fed will focus on the trends rather than the actual, positive numbers.

March’s pain may be April’s gain
March’s pain may be April’s gain

Flows to and from EPFR-tracked fund groups during the final week of March continued to paint a picture of risk aversion and fear among investors. For the third week running liquidity funds recorded above average inflows while High Yield, Bank Loan, Emerging Markets Bond and Alternative Funds extended their current outflow streaks.

Banking on the cavalry’s prompt arrival
Banking on the cavalry’s prompt arrival

The second week of March was dominated by the crumbling fortunes of large US regional banks and European major Credit Suisse. Although this certainly dented investors’ risk appetite, many saw events as an opportunity – especially if major central banks dust off their playbooks from 2008-09 and 2020, opening lines of credit and secured lending facilities and cutting interest rates.

Comfort with China exceeds $1 trillion
Comfort with China exceeds $1 trillion

At the turn of the century, investing in China was viewed as a risky proposition. Foreign access to a notoriously volatile, retail-driven equity market was heavily restricted. The lack of a credible regulatory framework and legal protections deterred US venture capitalists from making direct investments in Chinese companies. In many cases, Chinese banks and the country’s fledgling private equity industry also balked. So, when Chinese technology firm Alibaba received its first $25 million investment from Goldman Sachs in 1999, investors sat up and took notice.